Our tipster Jones Knows previews the weekend with his Premier League tips, analysis and predictions.
Winners last weekend for Jones Knows?
- Liverpool draw with Man City 3/1
- Over 3.5 goals in Saints vs Chelsea 3/1
- Tottenham win at zero 3/1
- Brentford beat West Ham 7/4
- Brentford win 2-0
- Newcastle, Chelsea, Leeds all winners
Newcastle vs Leicester, Sunday 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports
Dan Burn is a friend of mine when it comes to overpriced centre-backs in a variety of markets. He’s not quite on my dream centre-back dinner list just yet (Shane Duffy, Harry Maguire, Gareth McAuley, Yerry Mina and Craig Dawson if you ask) but that could change if he delivers this weekend. end.
The Geordie boy has been sensational since arriving from Brighton, but what would put the icing on the cake would be a goal at St James’ Park – every fan’s dream. I think Sunday could be burn-up day against this Leicester defense which has improved with the return of Jonny Evans and Wesley Fofana but which still does not convince me at set pieces. The Foxes have conceded 16 Premier League goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) this season – the most with Leeds.
Good quality chances have fallen Burn’s way in his nine starts for Newcastle, equating to an expected goal figure of 0.73. The tallest player in the Premier League to ever score a header this season and playing for a side that have scored 13 of their 34 goals this season from set pieces, should he really be 25/1 to score any another ? I would say no. It’s value play to score a header in a tight affair.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Dan Burn scores a header (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham v Burnley, Sunday 2.15pm
If it was a chase, Burnley fell way behind their required race pace. They can no longer block and push for singles. It’s time for the managerless Clarets to swing to the limits if they are to catch Everton and Leeds above them.
Dummies won’t be enough. They need to add to their pathetic tally of just four wins – and this game will be seen as an opportunity to do so with West Ham’s Europa League commitments causing problems with their Premier League form.
This shift in mentality to play ‘must win’ football over the past two matches has had a positive effect on Burnley’s attacking metrics – something that will continue to increase over the coming weeks. The games have been much more open with their last two games with five goals scored and an expected total goals of 8.71 when the two teams come together.
Traveling to face a West Ham side whose games at the London Stadium average 3.13 goals and who have seen both teams score 75% of the time this season makes this game look like a goal heavy hitter. The markets have the goal line around 2.5 goals, which I think is too low. That means we need to attack overs with confidence in Evens.
I also want to add Burnley’s number of corners into the mix. They won nine against Everton and seven in their loss to Norwich – another sign that their attacking intent has gone up a notch. Only Aston Villa and Southampton have won more Premier League corners since March 1 than Burnley and that included a game with Manchester City where they won just one. Take this game out and they average 7.2 corners per 90 minutes.
Therefore, Sky Bet’s lines on the corners of Burnley are worth supporting. Those who like to beat short prices should take a look at Burnley winning four corners at 4/6 with Sky Bet as West Ham have conceded at least four corners in their nine Premier League games, but I’m pushing the boat out a bit further by attacking the line six or more corners at a gigantic 3/1 with Sky Bet.